Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Bad presentation of .. the United States as Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon.

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I was surprised to find giverenzer enjoying reading a book about statistics. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. Er ist mit Lorraine Daston verheiratet. Doctors and test advocates seem to be unaware of this uncertainty, they have different goals than do the patients who will receive the tests, and they ignore the costs of false positives.

Refresh and try again. Cognitive scientis At the beginning of the twentieth century, H.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Certainly not the first book addressing the problem of statistical riwks among the public, but I think this book’s message has been somewhat drown out by less serious and more recent releases from authors who’ve had the fortune of becoming more popular. He illustrates how different versions of probability result in wildly different assessments gigerenzdr risk. Preview — Calculated Risks by Gerd Gigerenzer. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives.

Amazon Restaurants Food delivery from local restaurants. Not Enabled Enhanced Typesetting: Jul 18, Marcelle rated it really liked it Shelves: His book is a successful attempt to help innumerates those who don’t understand statisticsoffering case studies of people who desperately need to understand statistics, including those working in AIDS counseling, DNA fingerprinting and domestic violence cases.


And he asserts that how to set up categories also influences evaluating risks. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast calculaated screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You – Gerd Gigerenzer – Google Books

A critic of the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, he argues that heuristics should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as riddled with irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive rationality as an adaptive tool that is not identica Gerd Gigerenzer is a German psychologist who has studied the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making, especially in medicine.

The same example with frequencies is this: Currently you have JavaScript disabled. In contrast, natural frequencies result from natural sampling, the process by which humans and animals have encountered information about ris during most of their evolution.

Recommended as further reading by Ben Goldacre in Bad Science. I cannot recommend this book enough. The author comes up with many other counterintuitive concepts. The book contains some useful information, but it is highly repetitious. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. Many of you might remember having learned how to “solve” this kind of problem.

Mammograms can show a noninvasive cancer called ductal carcinoma in situwhich is predominately nonfatal and needs no treatment, but is initially seen as a guess of cancer. To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number.

Oct 15, Joe rated it really liked it Recommends it for: The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. In the meantime, I still feel a responsibility to my students to try to instill in them an understanding that the world at large including mathematics! He puts forward some very compelling information about various medical areas mammograms, AIDS testing, prostate exams – and how there isn’t as much certainty in these tests as we are lead to believe.


I used to believe, but the author shook my firm believe in this. I hope I have been able to give you a flavor for what’s in this book. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1, women will reap. Following the perhaps present standard of care, however, he doctor insisted she be monitored more closely, with more frequent mammography and another biopsy at a future time.

One particular fraction may represent the probability that, say, a person who has HIV tests positive for the virus. And patients with drug B, 9 were cured. Yet, in a city of say, 10 million, there could be 10 individuals whose DNA match, ‘reducing’ the probability that the suspect is the perpetrator of the crime to 1 out of This guy stands firmly by his claims and backs it up with research.

This asymmetry shows that the goals of patients and doctors are not the same.? This book offered me that unique experience when you have felt something to be true for so many years in your life but never quite knew how to put words to the m Although this book was pretty dense and took me a while to read, I think Gigerenzer did an excellent job of explaining often convaluted and complex statistical reasoning in simple terms so that a common non-mathematically excitable person can see the error that so many professionals doctors, lawyers, and scientists make every day.

Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer – no Kindle device required. So, what doctors should say is that a positive test really does not mean anything.